The chill that settled over the area on Sunday kept people off the bike trails and away from the sidewalk cafes. The beach was cold and blustery.
The low Sunday morning was 45 at PBIA; and on the island it was 46, according to an NWS reading at the Lake Worth Pier. On Monday at 7 a.m., it was 45 at PBIA and 48 on the island. The official high at the airport Sunday was 60.
Some cold snap lowlights from around the state (early Monday morning low temperatures): It was 17 degrees in Cross City in the panhandle, 20 in Tallahassee and in Gainesville; 21 in Jacksonville, 33 in Orlando; 35 in Melbourne; 37 in Tampa, 48 in Miami and 56 in Key West.
Naples set a record Sunday with a high of 59 degrees. That’s the coolest high temperature for the date, busting the old record of 65 degrees set in 1988.
The winter weather was on the wane by Monday morning, as high pressure pushed off the coast of Georgia, turning the winds in South Florida to the northeast off the warm water. Future cold blasts are noticeably absent from long-range forecasts. There are only about two weeks (16 days) left in the 2011-2012 meteorological winter, although the astronomical spring doesn’t begin until March 20.
Temperatures are expected to rebound into the high-70s by Thursday in Palm Beach, according to the National Weather Service in Miami. And AccuWeather predicts that we’ll begin to see some mid-80s by the end of next week and the week of Feb. 26.
The European forecast model, one of the most respected by meteorologists, shows seasonable temperatures and dry conditions in Florida through mid-March, according to weather blogger Brett Anderson. For Palm Beach, that means high temperatures around 80 and lows in the low-60s.
When the last chapter is written, it looks like winter 2011-2012 will have been significantly warmer than average in South Florida with a rainfall deficit moderated at least somewhat by early February’s heavy rains. December was 3.9 degrees above average with a 2.48-inch rainfall deficit; January was dead-on normal temperature wise, with a 2.75-inch rainfall deficit; February has been 3.5 above normal so far, with a rainfall surplus of 1.81 inches.
I wondered what the warm winter has been doing to sea surface temperatures, since ocean water becomes a major fuel source for hurricanes later on in the year. While there has been some cold water off the coast of Florida this winter, the Gulf of Mexico has remained unusually warm.
It appears to me in looking at the maps from the maps from NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service that the Gulf hasn’t been this warm in February since 2008. That turned out to be a rather nasty year for tropical storms and hurricanes, although there are many factors that go into predicting a storm season other than sea surface temperatures.
Expect to see SSTs discussed in detail when Colorado State University and other entities issue their first pre-season hurricane forecasts in April.
Here are the comparisons, starting with the top analysis from Monday and going back to similar dates over the past five years (Credit: NOAA/ NESDIS):
